METHODOLOGY

Trace the inputs.
Understand the result.

The evaluation connects a defined material balance to annual revenue, cost, debt and equity cash flows. Its job is to make a scenario inspectable—not to hide uncertainty behind a single return figure.

01

Engineering basis

Annual throughput equals selected tyre-processing capacity in tonnes/day multiplied by operating days/year. Product quantities equal annual throughput multiplied by oil, recovered carbon black and metal yields.

Annual product quantity = capacity × operating days × product yield

Inputs must be finite. Product yields must be nonnegative and total no more than 100%. The remaining mass is not automatically treated as saleable gas or another revenue stream. Product quality, moisture, feedstock composition and actual plant availability require project-specific verification.

The model supports discrete capacities of 10, 20, 30, 40 and 50 TPD. No unapproved interpolation or power-law capacity scaling is applied.

02

Commercial inputs

Oil, rCB and metal revenue use the applicable product quantity and price. Gate-fee revenue uses tyre throughput; a negative gate fee is a feedstock cost. Carbon-credit revenue uses throughput, the selected carbon factor and the selected credit price.

The workbook links metal revenue to oil price. The app exposes that reference policy and a separate selected-metal-price policy explicitly. Neither product prices nor a carbon factor establish product acceptance or eligibility to issue carbon credits.

Plant CAPEX and aggregate annual OPEX use the existing discrete reference tables and selected multipliers. The fixed/variable cost split, component drivers and smaller-capacity OPEX mapping remain matters for agreement. All amounts are modelled in NOK; currency conversion is not implied.

03

Financial schedules

Debt uses equal principal repayments after the selected grace period, with interest on the opening balance. The final repayment is included and debt balances continue through the full project horizon.

The default asset policy follows the workbook’s documented 10-year equipment and 20-year building lives. Each depreciation charge is capped at the remaining asset basis. At the 50 TPD reference allocation, NOK 142 million equipment and NOK 36 million buildings total NOK 178 million plant CAPEX.

Current provisional operating scenarios assume full annual operation from year one. Tax equals the positive part of earnings before tax multiplied by the selected tax rate, without a tax-loss carryforward. Startup ramp-up, capital allowances, working capital and terminal recoveries still require agreed treatment.

04

Return metrics

Current equity IRR, NPV, sensitivity and cumulative equity payback use the same selected annual equity cash-flow series. Year zero is the negative equity injection; later cash flows reflect EBITDA, interest, tax and principal repayments.

Annual equity cash flow = EBITDA − interest − tax − principal

NPV discounts annual flows at the selected rate and includes year zero undiscounted. IRR is reported as unavailable when the series has no valid sign change or multiple sign changes that could imply ambiguous roots.

CAPEX/EBITDA is a simple ratio. Cumulative equity payback is the first recovery of injected equity, interpolated within the recovery year. It is not discounted payback and does not guarantee subsequent cash flows stay positive.

05

Sensitivity and uncertainty

The current tornado retains a common selected base and stresses oil price by ±NOK 1,000/tonne, rCB by ±NOK 2,000/tonne, gate fee by ±NOK 500/tonne and carbon price by ±NOK 200/tonne. Commodity and carbon prices are floored at zero.

Monte Carlo uses documented illustrative triangular stresses around selected assumptions. Physical yield totals are capped at 100%, days at 365, and investment stress affects funding rather than depreciation alone. Distributions and correlations need calibration before they can support probabilistic project conclusions. Undefined IRRs are counted explicitly.

06

Verification and limitations

The source Excel workbook contains cached errors and has not been independently recalculated. Reference comparisons check explicit source cells, units, required metrics and tolerances. A numerical cache match is not treated as verification.

The saved project IRR, saved equity IRR and legacy sensitivity IRR use different cash-flow bases. The website’s example charts remain labelled as saved outputs. The app’s current financial results are provisional until outstanding policies are agreed.

A decision-ready project case also needs equipment scope, feedstock and product evidence, local operating costs, regulatory and environmental assessment, and agreed financing assumptions. Consultation can help define that work.

A CLEARER NEXT STEP

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